Prediction markets work. The infrastructure around them doesn't.
Markets that aggregate real-time probability estimates on elections, policy, and geopolitical events have the potential to meaningfully improve how institutions make decisions. But that potential depends on infrastructure that doesn't exist yet — reliable data, rigorous contract standards, and independent quality controls. Without it, prediction markets remain too fragile and too easily manipulated to serve the public interest.
Bellwether is a research institution at Stanford building that infrastructure. We don't operate an exchange. We build the data layer, design the market standards, and conduct the research that the entire category needs to be worthy of the trust people are starting to place in it.