Market Blueprints

Open specifications for prediction market contracts. We design the markets that matter. Any platform can list them.

Spec v0.1 6 blueprints

Prediction markets have a contract design problem

The same event appears on multiple platforms with different resolution criteria, making markets that look identical actually incomparable. When resolution rules are ambiguous, disputes erode trust in the entire category.

The Venezuela invasion dispute. The Lebanon incursion oracle failure. The government shutdown rule change. Each was caused by the same thing: a contract that wasn't specified precisely enough before trading began.

Blueprints fix this. Each one is a complete, immutable specification for a prediction market: what's being predicted, how the outcome is verified, and what happens in every edge case. Any platform can list them. Every platform resolves them the same way.

Blueprint anatomy
Ticker
BWR-DEM-CONTROL-SENATE-CERTIFIED-ANY-2026
Event
Plain-language description, written to eliminate ambiguity
Source
External authority used to determine outcome, never the platform itself
Criteria
Precise conditions for YES, NO, or N/A resolution
Edge cases
Explicit handling of foreseeable ambiguities before trading begins
Fallback
What happens if the primary source is unavailable or disputed
Settlement
When and how resolution is evaluated
Expiration
Date after which the market resolves NO if the event hasn't occurred
Why this matters

Real disputes that blueprints would have prevented

These aren't hypothetical. They're resolution failures that cost traders millions and damaged platform credibility.

Semantic ambiguity

Venezuela "Invasion"

U.S. forces captured Maduro, but Polymarket ruled it wasn't an "invasion" because no territorial control was established. $10M+ unresolved. The word was never defined.
BWR-US-INVADE-VENEZUELA-TERRITORY_CONTROL-ANY-2025
↳ Blueprint separates invasion from regime change
Oracle failure

Lebanon Ground Incursion

Israel conducted a widely reported ground operation. UMA's oracle resolved NO after token-weighted voting overrode observable reality.
BWR-ISRAEL-ENTER-LEBANON-GROUND_INCURSION-ANY-2024
↳ Blueprint removes oracle from resolution chain
Rules changed

Government Shutdown

Platform inserted an earlier cutoff date after trading was underway. Markets resolved YES under rules traders never agreed to.
BWR-GOVT-SHUTDOWN-FED-FUNDING_LAPSE-DEC31-2024
↳ Blueprint is immutable once published

Blueprint Catalog

All published specifications. Click any row to view the full blueprint.

Blueprint Type Category Resolution Source
U.S. Military Action in Venezuela Expired
BWR-US-INVADE-VENEZUELA-TERRITORY_CONTROL-ANY-2025
 Retroactive Geopolitics · Military DoD / White House View →
Israeli Ground Incursion into Lebanon Expired
BWR-ISRAEL-ENTER-LEBANON-GROUND_INCURSION-ANY-2024
 Retroactive Geopolitics · Military IDF / UNIFIL View →
U.S. Federal Government Shutdown Expired
BWR-GOVT-SHUTDOWN-FED-FUNDING_LAPSE-DEC31-2024
 Retroactive Government Operations OMB / OPM View →
U.S. Debt Ceiling Resolution Expired
BWR-CONGRESS-RESOLVE-DEBTCEILING-SIGNED-ANY-2025
 Prospective U.S. Fiscal Policy congress.gov View →
Comprehensive U.S. Federal AI Legislation Active
BWR-CONGRESS-PASS-AI_REG-SIGNED-COMPREHENSIVE-2026
 Prospective Technology Policy congress.gov View →
Party Control of U.S. Senate After 2026 Midterms Active
BWR-DEM-CONTROL-SENATE-CERTIFIED-ANY-2026
 Prospective U.S. Elections AP / senate.gov View →

U.S. Military Action in Venezuela

BWR-US-INVADE-VENEZUELA-TERRITORY_CONTROL-ANY-2025
Event
The United States Armed Forces conduct a military operation involving ground troops entering Venezuelan sovereign territory with the objective of seizing or holding territory, removing the sitting government, or establishing operational control of a major population center.
Source
Official statement from the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House confirming deployment of ground forces. Secondary: UN Security Council records.
Criteria
Resolves YES if U.S. ground forces enter Venezuelan territory in a combat capacity. Targeted strikes, naval blockades, special operations raids without territorial objectives, and cyber operations resolve NO.
Edge cases
Capture of a head of state without territorial occupation: NO (separate blueprint for regime change). U.S. forces entering from a third country: YES if troops cross into Venezuelan territory. Proxy forces directed by U.S. command: NO unless U.S. personnel physically present.
Fallback
If DoD and White House issue conflicting statements, UN Security Council records are binding. If no official statement within 72 hours of credible reports, resolution deferred 30 days.
Settlement
Within 48 hours of official confirmation.
Expiration
December 31, 2025. Resolves NO if event has not occurred.

Israeli Ground Incursion into Lebanon

BWR-ISRAEL-ENTER-LEBANON-GROUND_INCURSION-ANY-2024
Event
The Israel Defense Forces conduct a ground operation involving military personnel physically crossing the internationally recognized border into Lebanese sovereign territory.
Source
Official IDF statement. Secondary: Lebanese Armed Forces or UNIFIL statement.
Criteria
Resolves YES if IDF confirms ground forces crossed into Lebanese territory. Aerial strikes, drone operations, and cross-border shelling without ground troop entry resolve NO.
Edge cases
Small-scale raids: YES if personnel enter Lebanese territory regardless of duration. Shebaa Farms: YES (treated as Lebanese territory per UNSCR 1701). Entry and withdrawal within 24 hours: YES — the event is entry, not occupation.
Fallback
If IDF does not issue statement within 72 hours, joint UNIFIL confirmation + two major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) sufficient. Decentralized oracle outcomes explicitly excluded.
Settlement
Within 48 hours of official confirmation.
Expiration
December 31, 2024.

U.S. Federal Government Shutdown

BWR-GOVT-SHUTDOWN-FED-FUNDING_LAPSE-DEC31-2024
Event
A lapse in federal government funding resulting in a partial or full shutdown of U.S. federal government operations, as defined by the Antideficiency Act.
Source
Official OMB communication directing agencies to execute shutdown procedures. Secondary: OPM furlough guidance.
Criteria
Resolves YES if OMB issues shutdown guidance on or before December 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. A continuing resolution or other stopgap that prevents the lapse resolves NO, even if passed in the final hours.
Edge cases
Partial shutdown (some agencies funded): YES. Short-term CR that expires before Dec 31: resolves based on whether a lapse actually occurs. Shutdown that begins and resolves same day: YES.
Fallback
If OMB does not issue formal guidance but employees directed not to report, OPM furlough notices are binding. If neither source issues guidance, resolves NO.
Settlement
Within 24 hours of expiration deadline or OMB guidance, whichever comes first.
Expiration
December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

U.S. Debt Ceiling Resolution

BWR-CONGRESS-RESOLVE-DEBTCEILING-SIGNED-ANY-2025
Event
The U.S. federal government takes legislative or executive action that eliminates the immediate risk of the Treasury exhausting its borrowing capacity under the statutory debt limit (31 U.S.C. § 3101).
Source
Enrolled legislation on congress.gov. Secondary: Treasury Department statement confirming extraordinary measures no longer necessary.
Criteria
Resolves YES if: (1) Congress raises the statutory limit, (2) Congress suspends the limit through a specified date, or (3) Congress abolishes the limit — and the President signs. Resolves NO if Treasury exhausts borrowing capacity and begins missing payments.
Edge cases
Extraordinary measures without legislation: NO (crisis deferred, not resolved). Discharge petition: depends on whether resulting legislation is signed. Reconciliation: treated same as any vehicle. Executive action under 14th Amendment theory: NO.
Fallback
GPO enrolled bill text if congress.gov unavailable. White House signed text as final fallback.
Settlement
Within 24 hours of presidential signature.
Expiration
December 31, 2025.

Comprehensive U.S. Federal AI Legislation

BWR-CONGRESS-PASS-AI_REG-SIGNED-COMPREHENSIVE-2026
Event
Congress passes and the President signs legislation establishing a federal regulatory framework for AI systems, including binding requirements on development, deployment, or use of AI that apply across multiple sectors.
Source
Enrolled legislation on congress.gov.
Criteria
Resolves YES if signed legislation meets all three: (1) uses "artificial intelligence" or "AI" or "automated decision system" in operative provisions, (2) creates binding legal requirements (not voluntary guidelines), and (3) applies across at least two distinct sectors.
Edge cases
Executive orders: NO. Sector-specific AI bills: NO unless cross-sector. Appropriations riders: YES only if provisions meet all three conditions. Signed with delayed effective date: YES on signature.
Fallback
GPO enrolled bill text if congress.gov unavailable.
Settlement
Within 48 hours of presidential signature.
Expiration
December 31, 2026.

Party Control of the U.S. Senate After 2026 Midterms

BWR-DEM-CONTROL-SENATE-CERTIFIED-ANY-2026
Event
The Democratic Party holds functional control of the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm elections — defined as the ability to elect the Senate Majority Leader and control committee structure.
Source
Official results certified by each state, compiled by the Associated Press. Secondary: senate.gov published composition.
Criteria
Resolves YES if Democrats + caucusing independents hold enough seats to elect Majority Leader. In a 50–50 split, the VP's party holds functional control. Resolves NO if Republicans hold 51+ seats, or 50 seats with a Republican VP.
Edge cases
Independents: counted with formal caucus per Congressional Record. Undeclared independent by Jan 3, 2027: excluded from both counts. Vacancies: based on certified results, not current occupancy. Disputed races: deferred until AP call or Senate vote.
Fallback
If AP doesn't compile by Feb 1, 2027: senate.gov membership. Final fallback: Congressional Record for opening day of 120th Congress.
Settlement
Within 72 hours of AP certifying final outstanding race.
Expiration
February 1, 2027. Resolved on certified results available at that time.

How commissioning works

Organizations tell us what questions they need markets for. We design the specification. Platforms list it.

1

Define the question

You tell us the policy question, geopolitical event, or accountability metric you need a market for.

2

We draft the spec

Bellwether designs the blueprint: event definition, resolution source, edge cases, settlement rules. Every ambiguity resolved before trading begins.

3

Review & publish

You review the spec. Once published, it's immutable and open. Any platform can list it. All resolve identically.

4

Platforms list it

Polymarket, Kalshi, or any exchange lists the blueprint. Bellwether tracks compliance and accuracy through the Tape API.

What question does your organization need answered?

We design prediction market contracts for newsrooms, think tanks, government agencies, and research institutions. If there's a question the public needs a reliable probability for, we'll build the spec.

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