Every prediction market trade is a claim about the future. When that future arrives, someone must verify what happened. Today, that process is manual, disputed, and broken.
The Resolution Engine evaluates outcomes against precise specifications, checking authoritative sources with no human discretion required. Ground truth for newsrooms and AI training pipelines.
// contract specification "question": "Will there be a federal government shutdown before Dec 31, 2024?", "resolution_rule": "YES if a funding lapse causes OMB to issue shutdown guidance", // evidence gathered "sources_checked": ["omb.gov", "opm.gov", "congress.gov"], "evidence": "OMB issued shutdown contingency plans on Dec 19. OPM confirmed agency furloughs effective Dec 21.", // verdict "outcome": "YES", "confidence": "definitive", "resolved_at": "2024-12-21T00:00:00Z", "market_price_at_close": 0.78
A working prototype of the Resolution Engine, applied to real prediction market contracts from Polymarket and Kalshi.
The oracle takes a contract specification, gathers evidence from tiered authoritative sources, extracts verifiable facts with direct quotes, and applies the resolution rules step by step. The full reasoning chain — from evidence to verdict — is visible and auditable. When the oracle isn't confident, it flags the case for escalation rather than guessing.
Resolution Oracle →These aren't hypothetical. Each was caused by ambiguous contract specifications and human discretion in the resolution process. Millions lost. Platform credibility damaged.
Bellwether participates in UMA's optimistic oracle as a voter and delegate. If you hold staked UMA and want your votes informed by our resolution methodology, you can delegate to us.
The Resolution Engine is live. If you're building AI systems that need calibrated outcome data, or a newsroom that needs verified market intelligence, we should talk.