| Outlet | CitationsNumber of times this outlet cited prediction market data in the last 30 days, with today's count in parentheses. | % ReportablePercentage of this outlet's cited markets (last 30 days) that are Tier 1 (reportable) — meaning the market has sufficient liquidity and the cited probability is accurate. Higher is better. | Avg $ to Move 5¢Average dollar cost required to move the price of cited markets by 5 cents (last 30 days). Higher values mean more liquid, harder-to-manipulate markets. | Tier Mix | Platforms |
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We monitor news articles and TV broadcasts that mention prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt) using GDELT's global news index, NewsAPI, and Internet Archive TV News. Citations are collected daily and deduplicated by URL.
Each citation is matched to a specific Bellwether market contract using a three-stage pipeline: (1) direct URL extraction, (2) fuzzy text matching against our enriched market database, and (3) LLM-assisted selection from candidate shortlists. This determines which market the journalist was citing.
Matched markets are scored on a 0–100 fragility scale based on four components: trading volume, orderbook depth (cost to move the price 5¢), bid-ask spread, and price volatility around the time of citation. Each market is assigned a reportability tier:
For resolved markets, we compute the Brier score: (probability cited − actual outcome)². A score of 0 means the cited probability perfectly predicted the outcome; 1 means it was perfectly wrong. This measures whether outlets cite markets that turn out to be accurate.
Outlets are ranked by the quality of markets they cite. Outlets that consistently cite deep, liquid markets (Tier 1) score higher than those citing thin, easily-manipulated markets (Tier 3). An outlet's "% Reportable" reflects what share of their citations referenced markets robust enough for responsible journalism.